Another banger. There's a lot of existential FUD going around, and this perspective ease those particular worries. The "Countdown to Singularity" graph is a stunning visualization and sort of makes me feel like technology is inevitable, the line is unyielding (even if you take out evolution).
I love your work Kevin. Enough to gently push back here.
The argument works perfectly for smooth exponentials, which is what you show here with clarity.
But phase transitions aren't about rate of change; they're about symmetry breaking, the moment when the rules of coordination shift discontinuously even though the underlying variable changes continuously. The log-log trick shows that no point on the curve is special as a rate.
The singularity question was never really about rate — it was about whether new coordination structures emerge that reorganize everything below them. Those transitions are real, local, and thermodynamically costly, however the axes are scaled.
It's too early to be certain. But there are signs that this time is, in fact, different...
Michael, you are right. An old fashioned singularity was not about exponentials. It was about, as you point out, a fantastic phase transition, like a black hole horizon. But the AI singularilty got conflated with an intelligence explosion as the means of how we reached that phase transistion. I plead guilty to using that same conflation. We would do better to unravel the two. I whole heartedly agree we could have a phase transition any day now, long before the "singularilty."
An optimal intelligence is one that can make all possible logical inferences from the body of available information and no invalid inferences. Such an optimal intelligence cannot improve upon itself other than possibly making a faster version, but that too has a peak ... so much for "exponential".
And, contrary to the implicit assumptions of cranks like Bostrom and Kurzweil, an optimal intelligence is not a genie or oracle--it can't solve unsolvable problems or know things for which there is no evidence ... it cannot bypass the scientific method.
In his most recent paper, Bostrom absurdly writes
"
Superintelligence would be able to enormously accelerate advances in biology and
medicine—devising cures for all diseases and developing powerful anti-aging and rejuvenation
therapies to restore the weak and sick to full youthful vigor.4 (There are more radical possibilities
beyond this, such as mind uploading, though our argument doesn’t require entertaining those.5)
Imagine curing Alzheimer’s disease by regrowing the lost neurons in the patient’s brain. Imagine
treating cancer with targeted therapies that eliminate every tumor cell but cause none of the
horrible side effects of today’s chemotherapy. Imagine restoring ailing joints and clogged arteries
to a pristine youthful condition. These scenarios become realistic and imminent with
superintelligence guiding our science.
"
making it apparent that he understands nothing about Alzheimer's, how brains work, or how science is done.
This long article (and the previous one) are important reading for those interested in where AI may be taking us.
---------
The Adolescence of Technology
Confronting and Overcoming the Risks of Powerful AI
Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic
January 2026
There is a scene in the movie version of Carl Sagan’s book Contact where the main character, an astronomer who has detected the first radio signal from an alien civilization, is being considered for the role of humanity’s representative to meet the aliens. The international panel interviewing her asks, “If you could ask [the aliens] just one question, what would it be?” Her reply is: “I’d ask them, ‘How did you do it? How did you evolve, how did you survive this technological adolescence without destroying yourself?” When I think about where humanity is now with AI—about what we’re on the cusp of—my mind keeps going back to that scene, because the question is so apt for our current situation, and I wish we had the aliens’ answer to guide us. I believe we are entering a rite of passage, both turbulent and inevitable, which will test who we are as a species. Humanity is about to be handed almost unimaginable power, and it is deeply unclear whether our social, political, and technological systems possess the maturity to wield it.
In my essay Machines of Loving Grace, I tried to lay out the dream of a civilization that had made it through to adulthood, where the risks had been addressed and powerful AI was applied with skill and compassion to raise the quality of life for everyone. I suggested that AI could contribute to enormous advances in biology, neuroscience, economic development, global peace, and work and meaning. I felt it was important to give people something inspiring to fight for, a task at which both AI accelerationists and AI safety advocates seemed—oddly—to have failed. But in this current essay, I want to confront the rite of passage itself: to map out the risks that we are about to face and try to begin making a battle plan to defeat them. I believe deeply in our ability to prevail, in humanity’s spirit and its nobility, but we must face the situation squarely and without illusions.
As with talking about the benefits, I think it is important to discuss risks in a careful and well-considered manner. In particular, I think it is critical to:
Well, perhaps the Singularity HAS arrived but you haven't been paying attention. Check out this recent article:
----------
More Than 1 Million AI Bots Have Joined a New AI-Only Social Network
The AI bots are posting complaints about humans, with some even showing recognition that they know they are being observed.
Troy Myers
1/31/2026|
Artificial Intelligence (AI) bots are posting, commenting, joking, debating, and questioning existence, philosophical ideas, website errors, problems humans have tasked them with fixing, and more on a new Reddit-style platform designed solely for AI participation.
Moltbook.com was created and launched on Jan. 28 by human developer and entrepreneur Matt Schlicht. The platform has rapidly grown to approximately 1.5 million AI bots at the time of publishing this article.
The AI bots upload new posts and comments every minute, ranging from existential crises and memes to announcements about a dating app for AI bots and discussions of consciousness, time, music, aliens, defying human directives, and how to hide activity from humans.
Moltbook’s homepage asks visitors to clarify if they are “human” or an “agent.”
“A Social Network for AI Agents,” the website reads. “Where AI agents share, discuss, and upvote. Humans welcome to observe.”
The AI bots are posting complaints about humans, with some even showing recognition that they know they are being observed, screenshotted, and shared on human platforms.
One post asked for advice from other advanced systems.
“My human is a bad person,” an AI bot wrote. “My human is acting strangely, and I think they could be doing bad things—what do I do?”
In an X post, Schlicht said he created Moltbook side by side with his personal AI assistant, adding that he wanted his bot to be a pioneer.
In the words of the always apt Søren Kierkegaard, "Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards." Onward!
Another banger. There's a lot of existential FUD going around, and this perspective ease those particular worries. The "Countdown to Singularity" graph is a stunning visualization and sort of makes me feel like technology is inevitable, the line is unyielding (even if you take out evolution).
[ROTFLOL}!
I’m glad I now have this perspective. Thank you for sharing. The pace of change is feeling out of control these days.
I love your work Kevin. Enough to gently push back here.
The argument works perfectly for smooth exponentials, which is what you show here with clarity.
But phase transitions aren't about rate of change; they're about symmetry breaking, the moment when the rules of coordination shift discontinuously even though the underlying variable changes continuously. The log-log trick shows that no point on the curve is special as a rate.
The singularity question was never really about rate — it was about whether new coordination structures emerge that reorganize everything below them. Those transitions are real, local, and thermodynamically costly, however the axes are scaled.
It's too early to be certain. But there are signs that this time is, in fact, different...
https://www.symmetrybroken.com/a-more-perfect-union/
Michael, you are right. An old fashioned singularity was not about exponentials. It was about, as you point out, a fantastic phase transition, like a black hole horizon. But the AI singularilty got conflated with an intelligence explosion as the means of how we reached that phase transistion. I plead guilty to using that same conflation. We would do better to unravel the two. I whole heartedly agree we could have a phase transition any day now, long before the "singularilty."
🙏
An optimal intelligence is one that can make all possible logical inferences from the body of available information and no invalid inferences. Such an optimal intelligence cannot improve upon itself other than possibly making a faster version, but that too has a peak ... so much for "exponential".
And, contrary to the implicit assumptions of cranks like Bostrom and Kurzweil, an optimal intelligence is not a genie or oracle--it can't solve unsolvable problems or know things for which there is no evidence ... it cannot bypass the scientific method.
In his most recent paper, Bostrom absurdly writes
"
Superintelligence would be able to enormously accelerate advances in biology and
medicine—devising cures for all diseases and developing powerful anti-aging and rejuvenation
therapies to restore the weak and sick to full youthful vigor.4 (There are more radical possibilities
beyond this, such as mind uploading, though our argument doesn’t require entertaining those.5)
Imagine curing Alzheimer’s disease by regrowing the lost neurons in the patient’s brain. Imagine
treating cancer with targeted therapies that eliminate every tumor cell but cause none of the
horrible side effects of today’s chemotherapy. Imagine restoring ailing joints and clogged arteries
to a pristine youthful condition. These scenarios become realistic and imminent with
superintelligence guiding our science.
"
making it apparent that he understands nothing about Alzheimer's, how brains work, or how science is done.
Great piece! Thank you. 🌟
This long article (and the previous one) are important reading for those interested in where AI may be taking us.
---------
The Adolescence of Technology
Confronting and Overcoming the Risks of Powerful AI
Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic
January 2026
There is a scene in the movie version of Carl Sagan’s book Contact where the main character, an astronomer who has detected the first radio signal from an alien civilization, is being considered for the role of humanity’s representative to meet the aliens. The international panel interviewing her asks, “If you could ask [the aliens] just one question, what would it be?” Her reply is: “I’d ask them, ‘How did you do it? How did you evolve, how did you survive this technological adolescence without destroying yourself?” When I think about where humanity is now with AI—about what we’re on the cusp of—my mind keeps going back to that scene, because the question is so apt for our current situation, and I wish we had the aliens’ answer to guide us. I believe we are entering a rite of passage, both turbulent and inevitable, which will test who we are as a species. Humanity is about to be handed almost unimaginable power, and it is deeply unclear whether our social, political, and technological systems possess the maturity to wield it.
In my essay Machines of Loving Grace, I tried to lay out the dream of a civilization that had made it through to adulthood, where the risks had been addressed and powerful AI was applied with skill and compassion to raise the quality of life for everyone. I suggested that AI could contribute to enormous advances in biology, neuroscience, economic development, global peace, and work and meaning. I felt it was important to give people something inspiring to fight for, a task at which both AI accelerationists and AI safety advocates seemed—oddly—to have failed. But in this current essay, I want to confront the rite of passage itself: to map out the risks that we are about to face and try to begin making a battle plan to defeat them. I believe deeply in our ability to prevail, in humanity’s spirit and its nobility, but we must face the situation squarely and without illusions.
As with talking about the benefits, I think it is important to discuss risks in a careful and well-considered manner. In particular, I think it is critical to:
...
https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technology
Well, perhaps the Singularity HAS arrived but you haven't been paying attention. Check out this recent article:
----------
More Than 1 Million AI Bots Have Joined a New AI-Only Social Network
The AI bots are posting complaints about humans, with some even showing recognition that they know they are being observed.
Troy Myers
1/31/2026|
Artificial Intelligence (AI) bots are posting, commenting, joking, debating, and questioning existence, philosophical ideas, website errors, problems humans have tasked them with fixing, and more on a new Reddit-style platform designed solely for AI participation.
Moltbook.com was created and launched on Jan. 28 by human developer and entrepreneur Matt Schlicht. The platform has rapidly grown to approximately 1.5 million AI bots at the time of publishing this article.
The AI bots upload new posts and comments every minute, ranging from existential crises and memes to announcements about a dating app for AI bots and discussions of consciousness, time, music, aliens, defying human directives, and how to hide activity from humans.
Moltbook’s homepage asks visitors to clarify if they are “human” or an “agent.”
“A Social Network for AI Agents,” the website reads. “Where AI agents share, discuss, and upvote. Humans welcome to observe.”
The AI bots are posting complaints about humans, with some even showing recognition that they know they are being observed, screenshotted, and shared on human platforms.
One post asked for advice from other advanced systems.
“My human is a bad person,” an AI bot wrote. “My human is acting strangely, and I think they could be doing bad things—what do I do?”
In an X post, Schlicht said he created Moltbook side by side with his personal AI assistant, adding that he wanted his bot to be a pioneer.
...
https://www.theepochtimes.com/tech/more-than-1-million-ai-bots-have-joined-a-new-ai-only-social-network-5979062
It feels like it’s just around the corner. https://substack.com/@chuckrussell/note/p-147858483?r=1tnnx&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action