in the era of uncertainty, trust will be the highest value currency.
it’s getting to where i can only trust the people near me (family, friends, church) and what i can see, hear, and touch without some sort of intermediary (phone, computer). this may push me to rely more on my neighbors rather than social media, on local craftsman more than global industry.
our world may soon look like the Jetsons in technology, but our lives may operate more like Little House on the Prairie socially. but we may have to intentionally choose it, or else we will be swept along, like the humans in like Wall-E.
I was in DC last week and at the natural history museum there were kids everywhere on spring break. I heard a number of them saying that’s fake or I don’t think that’s real as they were looking at some of the more exotic minerals on display. I heard the same comments in the American history Museum as kids were looking at some of the artifacts. I would never have thought to question the authenticity of items in a museum. Things have changed.
Not sure we’re living in more uncertain times than previous generations, or just more anxious ones. Did we ever know (or pretend to know) what the future held?
The 20th century dealt humans two world wars, an economic depression, fascism, mass genocide, pandemics, the nuclear age, the space race, rapid industrial and social upheaval, and far more overt racial and sexual discrimination than most in the developed world face today. Entire generations lived with mass mobilisation, rationing, conscription, or the genuine prospect of global annihilation. Can't have been easy to live through, but because it ended with relative peace & prosperity, we think it surely felt like it was always going to end that way. And that's before we contemplate the 19th century or before?
Maybe the issue isn’t that modern life is uniquely uncertain. Maybe it’s that we’ve become less accustomed to disruption, more worried about the future, more exposed to constant information and more fragile when stability wobbles.
Uncertainty isn’t new, it's our constant state. History suggests we may experience it more loudly these days and so perhaps tolerate it less well.
"Cultivate multiple scenarios of what could happen, and endeavor with each of them to maximize your options." That sentence is quietly the most actionable line in the entire piece and it's buried three-quarters of the way down.
Most of the responses to uncertainty I see are binary. Either predict harder or give up predicting. Kelly is describing a third posture: hold five futures in your head simultaneously and build a life that works in at least three of them. That's not hedging. That's architecture.
The "uncertain uncertainties" framing is Rumsfeld's matrix taken one level deeper, and it's the right level. We're not confused about what we don't know. We're confused about whether what we think we know still counts. The kid in the museum saying "that's fake" about a real mineral isn't wrong about AI. He's applying AI-era epistemology to a pre-AI object. The doubt has escaped its container.
"Certainty will be the killer." That's the line I'll carry out of this. In a decade where the map keeps being redrawn, the people who laminate theirs will walk off a cliff they could have seen if they'd been willing to hold the pencil.
It seems that the combination of uncertainty and the need to find something to lean upon in the headwind of change will drive a new form of spirituality and religiosity, which are different and both needed. "(To prevent yourself from being swept away by the latest current and fashionable whim, this radical adaptability must be anchored on a steadfast set of unchangeable virtues, as corny as honesty, or as slick as generosity.) The strategy for prospering in prolonged uncertainty must be one of constant, agile recalibration.
"Constant recalibration" sounds like attuning oneself to the subtle forces of life which are the weak signals of change. This implies a connection to the ineffable, mysterious, and unexplainable. the Tao Te Ching and the texts of the mystics point toward ways to cultivate this as a skill. To "be anchored on a steadfast set of unchangeable virtues" sounds a lot like the timeless commandments that have emerged in all societies about how to be a good person. Taken together, sensing the subtle forces and holding to a strong moral compass, one can feel more confident in navigating profound uncertainty.
Columbus was seeking a route to India when he found a 'new world'. Our quest for AI might produce a similar discovery. Anyone up for exploring a fourth dimension?
The only thing constant is change. I know the future looks uncertain, even bleak, but humanity has survived massive shifts before. And each time, we thought we'd never come out the same again. Who's to say for certain that this time, even with AGI, we won't find a way when this tide rolls over?
Yet Street analysts and CNBC contributors (especially those on Halftime Report) speak w confidence about their forecasts about AI. The less someone knows the more they talk.
Fascinating how you managed to write this blog without once mentioning how Trump has elevated the "Art of Lying" to levels never seen before, creating chaos whenever he posts to social media with no regards for the consequences and so amplifying by many factors nearly all the uncertainties you mention here. All for one reason only: Not to better the world but to fuel his pathological narcissistic ego.
Great piece! The Age of Ambiguity as a macro condition. What's interesting is how poorly most individual operating systems are designed for it. Built for certainty, trained to seek stable outcomes, rewarded for confident predictions. The adaptation required isn't just strategic, but also architectural.
excellent insights as always.
in the era of uncertainty, trust will be the highest value currency.
it’s getting to where i can only trust the people near me (family, friends, church) and what i can see, hear, and touch without some sort of intermediary (phone, computer). this may push me to rely more on my neighbors rather than social media, on local craftsman more than global industry.
our world may soon look like the Jetsons in technology, but our lives may operate more like Little House on the Prairie socially. but we may have to intentionally choose it, or else we will be swept along, like the humans in like Wall-E.
I was in DC last week and at the natural history museum there were kids everywhere on spring break. I heard a number of them saying that’s fake or I don’t think that’s real as they were looking at some of the more exotic minerals on display. I heard the same comments in the American history Museum as kids were looking at some of the artifacts. I would never have thought to question the authenticity of items in a museum. Things have changed.
Wow, that is a harsh reality. I need to recalculate….
Interesting perspective.
It may not be that we’re entering permanent uncertainty, but rather faster cycles of:
destabilization → adaptation → re-stabilization.
The deeper bottleneck might not be technological, but psychological:
whether humans can evolve fast enough internally to match external complexity.
In that sense, the challenge is less about predicting the future—and more about expanding our capacity to navigate it.
We’ve been exploring this as “Identity Agility” - Link here: https://dreamersgoldprint.substack.com/p/from-ai-to-ia-identity-agility?r=4rcnpx&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true&triedRedirect=true
Yoshi Garnica
Not sure we’re living in more uncertain times than previous generations, or just more anxious ones. Did we ever know (or pretend to know) what the future held?
The 20th century dealt humans two world wars, an economic depression, fascism, mass genocide, pandemics, the nuclear age, the space race, rapid industrial and social upheaval, and far more overt racial and sexual discrimination than most in the developed world face today. Entire generations lived with mass mobilisation, rationing, conscription, or the genuine prospect of global annihilation. Can't have been easy to live through, but because it ended with relative peace & prosperity, we think it surely felt like it was always going to end that way. And that's before we contemplate the 19th century or before?
Maybe the issue isn’t that modern life is uniquely uncertain. Maybe it’s that we’ve become less accustomed to disruption, more worried about the future, more exposed to constant information and more fragile when stability wobbles.
Uncertainty isn’t new, it's our constant state. History suggests we may experience it more loudly these days and so perhaps tolerate it less well.
"Cultivate multiple scenarios of what could happen, and endeavor with each of them to maximize your options." That sentence is quietly the most actionable line in the entire piece and it's buried three-quarters of the way down.
Most of the responses to uncertainty I see are binary. Either predict harder or give up predicting. Kelly is describing a third posture: hold five futures in your head simultaneously and build a life that works in at least three of them. That's not hedging. That's architecture.
The "uncertain uncertainties" framing is Rumsfeld's matrix taken one level deeper, and it's the right level. We're not confused about what we don't know. We're confused about whether what we think we know still counts. The kid in the museum saying "that's fake" about a real mineral isn't wrong about AI. He's applying AI-era epistemology to a pre-AI object. The doubt has escaped its container.
"Certainty will be the killer." That's the line I'll carry out of this. In a decade where the map keeps being redrawn, the people who laminate theirs will walk off a cliff they could have seen if they'd been willing to hold the pencil.
It seems that the combination of uncertainty and the need to find something to lean upon in the headwind of change will drive a new form of spirituality and religiosity, which are different and both needed. "(To prevent yourself from being swept away by the latest current and fashionable whim, this radical adaptability must be anchored on a steadfast set of unchangeable virtues, as corny as honesty, or as slick as generosity.) The strategy for prospering in prolonged uncertainty must be one of constant, agile recalibration.
"Constant recalibration" sounds like attuning oneself to the subtle forces of life which are the weak signals of change. This implies a connection to the ineffable, mysterious, and unexplainable. the Tao Te Ching and the texts of the mystics point toward ways to cultivate this as a skill. To "be anchored on a steadfast set of unchangeable virtues" sounds a lot like the timeless commandments that have emerged in all societies about how to be a good person. Taken together, sensing the subtle forces and holding to a strong moral compass, one can feel more confident in navigating profound uncertainty.
Columbus was seeking a route to India when he found a 'new world'. Our quest for AI might produce a similar discovery. Anyone up for exploring a fourth dimension?
maybe we'll come to realize what is important to know
The only thing constant is change. I know the future looks uncertain, even bleak, but humanity has survived massive shifts before. And each time, we thought we'd never come out the same again. Who's to say for certain that this time, even with AGI, we won't find a way when this tide rolls over?
Yet Street analysts and CNBC contributors (especially those on Halftime Report) speak w confidence about their forecasts about AI. The less someone knows the more they talk.
Radical adaptability, love it!
Fascinating how you managed to write this blog without once mentioning how Trump has elevated the "Art of Lying" to levels never seen before, creating chaos whenever he posts to social media with no regards for the consequences and so amplifying by many factors nearly all the uncertainties you mention here. All for one reason only: Not to better the world but to fuel his pathological narcissistic ego.
wow, Always the Kelly style-More Insightful than our era
Brilliant insights and great guidance for an uncertain future. Thanks for thinking. And sharing;
Great piece! The Age of Ambiguity as a macro condition. What's interesting is how poorly most individual operating systems are designed for it. Built for certainty, trained to seek stable outcomes, rewarded for confident predictions. The adaptation required isn't just strategic, but also architectural.
Yet they constantly talk as if they do..